April 2015 – April 2026  ·  11 Years of Historical Data

01 What This Document Is

This page discloses how the Bitcoin Strength Index (BSI) performed historically when its current methodology — BSI v5 — is applied to past market data. It is not a performance track record. BSI was not published or traded against during the majority of the period covered.

The purpose of this disclosure is to show whether the index's signal logic — the relationship between macro conditions and subsequent Bitcoin returns — holds up across a full market cycle, including severe bear markets, halving cycles, and the structural break caused by the Bitcoin ETF launch in January 2024.

02 Testing Methodology

The backtest applies BSI v5's scoring formula to historical daily data. Each trading day receives a score between 0 and 100, is assigned to a zone (Weak / Neutral / Strong / Max), and then subsequent 30-day and 90-day BTC returns are measured forward from that day's close. Results are aggregated by zone.

The test period is divided into three structural eras reflecting meaningful changes in the macro-Bitcoin relationship:

Signals used in v5: DXY (90-day % change), NASDAQ Composite (30-day % change), VIX (current level), 10-Year Treasury Yield (raw change), Gold / XAU (30-day % change), and the CNN Fear & Greed Index (contrarian). Fear & Greed data begins February 18, 2018 — prior to that date, the index is calculated from the remaining five signals with weights normalized accordingly.

Scoring formula: BSI = 50 + (Raw Score / 2), producing a 0–100 output. VIX carries a hard override: when VIX exceeds 35, BSI is capped at 65 regardless of other inputs (Panic Override). Each signal contributes a directional reading and confidence weight; the composite raw score is the sum of weighted directional values.

03 Zone Definitions (Backtest v5)

The following zone thresholds apply to this backtest. Note that the live website uses a different four-zone display system — these are the thresholds used to bin and analyze backtest data.

04 Zone Distribution — 4,019 Trading Days

How often BSI landed in each zone across the full test period:

Max zone is rare by design — 6.5% frequency over 11 years. Weak and Strong zones are nearly mirror images of each other by time spent, which provides a reasonable distribution for comparison purposes.

05 Historical BTC Returns by Zone

Returns are raw percentage gains from zone entry close to 30 or 90 calendar days forward. Win rate = percentage of periods where BTC was higher at the end of the window. Results are not risk-adjusted and do not account for transaction costs.

06 Known Limitations

No backtest is clean. The following limitations are disclosed in full — they should inform how you interpret the results above, not be treated as disclaimers to skim.

• ⚠
  Threshold calibration with hindsight. Signal thresholds (e.g., "DXY > +3% = strong headwind") were defined with knowledge of the historical period being tested. While no future data was used to set zone bins, the thresholds reflect 11 years of observed market behavior. Out-of-sample performance may differ.
• ⚠
  Fear & Greed data begins February 18, 2018. Before that date, BSI is calculated from five signals with normalized weights. Results from 2015–2018 reflect a structurally different index composition. Era 1 results should be interpreted with this in mind.
• ⚠
  Lookback window documentation gaps. DXY uses a 90-day lookback, NASDAQ and Gold use 30-day lookbacks, and 10Y Yield uses a raw point-in-time change. The specific lookback windows used in the live calculation are confirmed in signals.js but are not fully documented across all methodology materials — this is an acknowledged gap being corrected.
• ⚠
  Gold signal pending removal. BSI v2.0 (planned) removes Gold from the composite. Results above include Gold at its current weight (7.95%). Post-removal backtests have not been published — the v5 results are the current reference.
• ⚠
  Daily close data only. BSI uses end-of-day inputs. Intraday signal spikes (e.g., a VIX flash above 35 that closes lower) may not be captured. The live index updates throughout the day but is optimized for daily close readings.
• ⚠
  No transaction costs or slippage. Raw returns are used throughout. Actual results if trading against BSI zones would be reduced by fees, bid/ask spread, and execution lag.
• ⚠
  Short ETF-era sample. Era 3 (ETF regime) covers approximately 15 months as of this publication. Conclusions about the structural shift post-January 2024 are preliminary — the sample size is too small to draw statistically robust conclusions.
• ⚠
  Bitcoin's return distribution is non-normal. Mean returns are strongly influenced by a small number of extreme upside periods (2017, 2020–2021). Median returns by zone would tell a more conservative story. Win rates are a more reliable metric than raw return averages.

07 How to Use These Results

BSI is a macro conditions index — the same category as the CNN Fear & Greed Index or the NFCI. It describes the macro environment. It does not predict Bitcoin's price, issue buy or sell signals, or constitute investment advice.

The backtest shows that macro conditions, as captured by BSI, have historically correlated with subsequent BTC return distribution. Strong and Max zone periods have produced meaningfully better 90-day outcomes and higher win rates than Weak periods. That relationship held across a full cycle including the 2018 bear, the 2020 COVID crash, the 2022 bear, and the ETF-driven regime shift.

What this means practically: A BSI score in the Strong or Max zone is not a buy signal. It indicates that the macro backdrop has historically supported elevated BTC returns over the following 90 days — with a 73–76% win rate and significant excess over buy-and-hold. A Weak reading similarly does not mean BTC falls — it means the macro headwinds have historically compressed returns relative to the unconditional baseline.