Bitcoin Strength Index — BSI · The Macro Speedometer for Bitcoin

BTC

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24H · DAILY ENVIRONMENT

7-DAY —

MACRO REGIME SCORE · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

FORWARD INDICATOR

Global M2 · 10–14 week lead · Checking…

TODAY'S MACRO STORY

Reading the macro environment…

RECENT READINGS · LAST 7 CHECKS

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TODAY'S TOP DRIVERS

The 3 signals with the most influence on today's BSI reading.

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🔒 4 PRO SIGNALS NOT SHOWN

ETF Flows · Cycle Position (MVRV) · Credit Spreads · Fed Policy + 7 timeframes

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CREDIT SPREADS

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Updated: —

HOW BSI WORKS

Three steps from raw data to one number.

SIGNALS

9 macro and on-chain signals pulled from live sources — from 15-minute market data to daily on-chain readings.

COMPOSITE

Each signal is weighted, classified into a direction, and combined. Guardrails prevent extreme readings in unusual conditions.

0–100

REGIME SCORE

Raw score normalized to 0–100. Above 70 = macro helping Bitcoin. Below 44 = macro working against it.

BSI is not a price prediction. A speedometer tells you how fast you are going — not where you end up. BSI tells you what the macro environment is doing right now. What you do with that information is your decision.

UNDERSTAND THE SIGNALS

Tap any signal to learn what it measures and why it matters for Bitcoin.

DXY

USD INDEX (DXY)

Dollar strength · Highest weighted signal

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What it measures: The US Dollar Index tracks the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies — Euro, Yen, Pound, and others. A rising DXY means the dollar is strengthening globally.

Why it matters for Bitcoin: A stronger dollar historically pressures Bitcoin. When the dollar rises, risk assets face headwinds — investors move toward dollar-denominated safety. When the dollar weakens, capital rotates into hard assets and risk-on plays. This is BSI's highest-weighted signal because the relationship has been among the most consistent post-2020. BSI uses the 90-day rate of change to filter out daily noise.

CURRENT STATE

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BSI IMPACT

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"Watch what the dollar does. Bitcoin usually moves in the opposite direction."

NDX

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Institutional risk appetite

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What it measures: The NASDAQ Composite tracks over 3,000 tech and growth stocks. It is the best proxy for whether large institutional investors are in risk-on or risk-off mode.

Why it matters for Bitcoin: Since 2020, Bitcoin and NASDAQ have traded with historically high correlation. The same institutional desks that manage tech portfolios also manage Bitcoin exposure. When they sell tech, they sell Bitcoin. When they buy tech, Bitcoin benefits. A strong NASDAQ means institutions are comfortable with risk — and that environment historically supports Bitcoin.

CURRENT STATE

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BSI IMPACT

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"When NASDAQ sells off, don't be surprised when Bitcoin follows. They're in the same portfolio."

VIX

VIX — VOLATILITY INDEX

Market fear gauge · Hard cap at 35

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What it measures: The VIX measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. Often called the "fear gauge." Below 15 = calm markets. Above 25 = elevated fear. Above 35 = panic conditions.

Why it matters for Bitcoin: High VIX creates risk-off conditions across all markets. When VIX spikes, investors sell risky assets — and Bitcoin gets sold. Conversely, a calm VIX signals institutional money is comfortable staying in risk assets. BSI triggers a hard cap when VIX exceeds 35 combined with ETF outflows — in true panic, no composite score should read STRONG regardless of other signals.

CURRENT STATE

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BSI IMPACT

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"VIX below 15 is a green light. VIX above 25 is a yellow flag. VIX above 35 and BSI hard-caps — panic overrides everything."

10Y

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

Cost of capital · The 2022 lesson

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What it measures: The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest rate the US government pays to borrow money for 10 years. It is the global benchmark for the cost of capital. When yields rise, borrowing becomes more expensive everywhere.

Why it matters for Bitcoin: Rising yields hurt risk assets. When the 10-year goes up sharply, money flows from speculative assets into bonds — you can now earn a real return in safety. 2022 proved this definitively: yields rose from near zero to 4%+ and Bitcoin fell 75%. Falling yields push capital toward risk assets in search of returns. BSI uses 90-day directional change to measure this signal cleanly.

CURRENT STATE

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BSI IMPACT

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"2022: yields went from 1.5% to 4.3%. Bitcoin went from $48K to $16K. The relationship is not subtle."

XAU

GOLD (XAU)

Hard asset demand · Weighted 7%

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What it measures: Gold price tracks demand for physical stores of value. Rising gold typically signals that investors are seeking inflation protection, dollar debasement hedges, or safe-haven assets.

Why it matters for Bitcoin: Bitcoin and gold often benefit from the same tailwinds — dollar weakness, inflation fears, loss of confidence in fiat systems. When gold rises, it frequently confirms a broader shift toward hard assets. However, during crypto-specific panics, money can rotate from Bitcoin INTO gold, making gold's rise a headwind rather than a tailwind. BSI weights Gold at 7% to reflect this complexity — it confirms, but does not dominate.

CURRENT STATE

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BSI IMPACT

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"Gold rising confirms hard asset demand. Watch whether Bitcoin is rising with it or falling against it."

F&G

FEAR & GREED INDEX

Contrarian signal · BSI uses it backwards

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What it measures: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed), using volatility, momentum, social media, and surveys.

Why BSI uses it differently: Most tools take Fear & Greed at face value. BSI uses it as a contrarian signal. Extreme Fear (below 25) has historically marked near-term lows — when everyone panics, that is often worth paying attention to. Extreme Greed (above 75) signals caution — euphoria often precedes tops. This is weighted at only 4% because sentiment alone is never the whole story. Macro context always outranks mood.

CURRENT STATE

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BSI IMPACT

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"Fear & Greed tells you how people feel. BSI tells you what the macro environment actually is. Those are two completely different things."

🔒 4 MORE SIGNALS IN THE FULL APP

BTC ETF Flows — Direct institutional demand. When BlackRock buys real Bitcoin, this signal moves. Most direct demand indicator since ETF approval January 2024.
Cycle Position (MVRV) — Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle? On-chain MVRV Z-Score from Glassnode tells you early, mid, late, or peak.
Credit Spreads — The gap between high yield and investment grade corporate bonds. When companies pay much more to borrow than the US government, institutions are worried. That worry spreads to Bitcoin. A tightening spread means confidence is returning.
Fed Policy — Cutting, pausing, or hiking? The Fed's direction is the most historically impactful macro event for Bitcoin's regime.

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SIGNALS

Macro + on-chain + credit

TIMEFRAMES

1H tactical to 1Y regime

ALERTS

REGIME CHANGE

Push when BSI crosses bands

WIDGET

HOME SCREEN

BSI score always visible

WHAT IS BSI?

One number for Bitcoin's macro environment.

BSI synthesizes 9 macro and on-chain signals into a single score from 0 to 100. A score of 80 means macro is helping Bitcoin. A score of 20 means it's working against it. A score of 50 means mixed signals with no clear conviction.

It is not a price prediction. It is not investment advice. It is a regime indicator — the macro speedometer for Bitcoin.

BSI SHOWS YOU

✓ Actual macro conditions

✓ 9 underlying signals

✓ Why BTC is moving

✓ Regime, not prediction

FEAR & GREED SHOWS YOU

✗ How people feel

✗ No macro signals

✗ Mood, not context

✗ No regime distinction

WHY I BUILT THIS

I fall trees, mill logs, and am learning software as I go. That probably sounds strange but that is what 2026 looks like in Alaska. I have been watching markets for almost 20 years — curious but never qualified, interested but never equipped, until one day I discovered that there are too many layers, too many screens you have to pull up just to understand what is happening with Bitcoin.

The macro environment for Bitcoin is now the most important factor driving its price and almost nobody outside of institutional finance has a clean way to read it. Bloomberg costs $24,000 a year. Glassnode costs $2,000 a month. I built Bitcoin Strength Index because the gap between those tools and what regular Bitcoin holders actually have access to is inexcusable.

Nine macro signals. One number. Two seconds to understand. The macro speedometer for Bitcoin — built by a guy in Alaska.

Shaun Haragan

Alaska · Building BSI · March 2026